Running Out Of Steam Or No Need To Worry?

 Thoughts On The Week


On Monday evening, I was in attendance at the SMiSA meet the manager event held on Zoom. Jim Goodwin and Tony Fitzpatrick were on top form and did a fantastic job of answering the questions put to them (no need to take my word for it, the SMiSA social media accounts have uploaded the footage). What elevated the night from entertaining to fascinating, in my mind anyway, was at the end when Jim decided to show the Powerpoint he had prepared for his interview to become Buddies boss back in the summer of 2019.

There were numerous themes which kept cropping up when the vision for the club and, by extension, Jim's foundational principles of football management were discussed. A key one, to get an early talking point for this blog going, was the emphasis on running. Players who didn't have the required enthusiasm, work ethic, athleticism, and pace, to suit this new St Mirren side would simply not be signed in the first place. Less than 20 months isn't enough time to implement everything on the checklist, especially in the current climate, but this stated aim has certainly been achieved by the management.

The problem now, however, is that we're looking a bit tired. Jaded. Depleted of options on bench versus Hamilton on Wednesday, we had just Ryan Flynn and Dylan Connolly as recognised outfielders who could have turned the game in our favour. No wonder, therefore, there is an appetite to bring in a free agent who can immediately enter the fray and improve the team. Collin Quaner, our latest free agent signing who has barely played 20 minutes for us, is being rushed back to full fitness.

Our push for a top half finish, the best league placing for over 30 years, relies on this. Unfortunately, there are no running statistics on Wyscout to show things such as sprint speeds or distance covered. Yet the narrative we're in the midst of a mini-slump is building. Is it a bit of fatigue creeping in, just a consequence of circumstances, or something else?

Even Games And Fair Outcomes

VIDEO: Ilkay Durmus scores our goal against Hamilton to give us a short-lived lead.

Our matches against Aberdeen and Hamilton both ended up level (0-0 and 1-1 respectively) and it's hard to seriously argue we deserved to win or lose either. The game up at Pittodrie on Saturday was rendered nondescript by the weather conditions and a predictably tense, scrappy tie ensued. I don't think expected goals (xG) is necessarily a fantastic metric for individual games due to the inherent variation of football, but it paints a bleak yet realistic picture for those who didn't watch this one - 0.36xG for the Dons, 0.32xG for us. 

An even more illuminating feature of this match is provided by what Wyscout call long pass % - the portion of total passes played were either 'a ground pass longer than 45 meters or a high pass longer than 25 meters.' Of all our Premiership and League Cup knockout ties we've played during the 2020/21 campaign, the share of long passes we played away to Aberdeen was fourth highest (21.78% against a season long average of 17.58%). It's unsurprising we lacked any creativity or cutting edge last weekend.

NB: In case you are wondering, Livingston were the opponents on every occasion this season where we have played more long balls. The percentages are notably higher than the 21.78% against Aberdeen, so we can expect a lot of direct play and use of our target men strikers for the forthcoming match. Consider this a sneak preview.

Against Hamilton, by contrast, we made improvements across several measures:

  • Shots (16) and shots on target (3) went up on Wednesday (vs 6 & 2 from Saturday)
  • Unsurprisingly, therefore, our xG swelled considerably too - 1.02xG against 0.32xG
  • Possession increased (48.11% vs 47.16%)
  • Predictably, considering the possession and long pass stats from earlier, our passing accuracy improved markedly - by 7.62% (73.26% vs 65.64%).
Furthermore, considering the previously highlighted concerns about energy levels and fitness, we actually improved on these fronts too. The number of passes allowed per defensive action against Hamilton was impressively low at 5.29 (compared to 8 against Aberdeen and 6.31 in our first encounter with Accies this term). This tenacity and work rate suggests the team haven't been completely sapped of energy by a gruelling combination of key injuries and a packed schedule yet, albeit this is something to be wary of.

We also played at a higher tempo on Wednesday than we had managed in any home tie since our 3-2 triumph against St Johnstone back in December. Defined by Wyscout as the 'number of team passes per minute of pure ball possession', we were playing nearly 17 passes per minute. This is nearly 2 above our league season average (16.96 against 15.06). By this measure, we were a bit more laboured at Pittodrie (14.29 passes per minute) but, again, the atrocious windy conditions mean very few meaningful conclusions can be drawn.

Speaking of conditions, this week illustrates the importance of context when evaluating any side's performance. Personally, it makes sense to split draws into two categories - 'acceptable' and 'unacceptable'. Without considering context, from a St Mirren perspective a draw away to Aberdeen should be categorised as 'acceptable'; a draw at home to Hamilton would be considered by virtually everyone as 'unacceptable'.

Yet look at the current trajectories of Aberdeen and Hamilton respectively. The former can't buy a goal of late, and Derek McInnes is under an incredible amount of scrutiny for the first time up in the north-east. Meanwhile, the latter were clearly the best side in games against Motherwell and Rangers(!) prior to our encounter, giving them a remarkable confidence boost. 

Decided to stay clear of devoting the blog to an in-depth tactical analysis this time, although you can find previous instances of formation/strategy focused pieces here and here. In summation, the final talking points I wish to share are these:

  • The top six is still eminently achievable, although these draws have left the door open for Dundee United and St Johnstone - something we might come to rue.
  • Speaking of which, the Tangerines have a horrendous run of fixtures (the Old Firm, Aberdeen, and Kilmarnock in desperate need of a new manager bounce from Tommy Wright), so if we aren't ahead of them by game 33 then they've played a blinder or we've collapsed. St Johnstone have the kindest run of fixtures, and are on the best recent form, but the League Cup final could act as a distraction or derailment for their season.
  • We need players back. Quaner is close to a return, and McGrath and Doyle-Hayes don't need surgery, so at least will feature again fairly soon - even if not quick enough to play prior to the split.
  • Our squad being thin means a certain degree of patience and understanding from us as fans is required. We might be able to grind out the victories required but it isn't going to be easy or pretty.
  • Your outlook on our chances of a top-half finish is a reflection of yourself as a football fan more generally. I'm a natural pessimist, as a safeguard against crushing disappointment, and always fear the worst. I look forward to being wrong.
Jim Goodwin mentioned at the SMiSA meeting about the need for the St Mirren squad, staff, fans, and community, to pull together to achieve the best outcomes for the club. Let's do that. Keep the faith.

Thanks for reading.
COYS


Comments

Popular posts from this blog

Tactical Preview: St Mirren 2021/22

What to look out for from St Mirren in 2021

It's The Saints! 20/21 End Of Season Awards