St Mirren: Switching To Two Strikers . . . And How It Could Work(?)

 St Mirren: Switching To Two Strikers . . . And How It Could Work(?)

St Mirren have scored once in both league matches of 2021 which, considering neither were lost and the opposition was Kilmarnock away followed by a Motherwell side with a new manager and new goalkeeper, doesn't sound so bad. Dig a little deeper and the picture becomes slightly more concerning. 

Our goal against Kilmarnock was a fluke, a horrendous goalkeeping error which surely won't be repeated. We were denied a stonewall penalty for handball at Rugby Park, yet our goal against Motherwell was an unbelievably generous penalty award, and would have enraged Saints if given against us. This was one of only two shots on target - the other was a decent yet fairly comfortable freekick from Ilkay Durmus. Our shoot on sight policy never troubled Liam Kelly. We can be satisfied that we didn't deserve to lose either game; simultaneously, it's hard to argue we merited a victory.

Previous pieces have pointed out that we lack a cutting edge in comparison to most of our competitors in the division. Fans on social media continue to implore the management to switch to two strikers. Yet a flat 4-4-2 doesn't look especially promising. It's acceptable when desperate and chasing the game, as our displays in 2021 thus far have demonstrated, however our 3-0 drubbing against Hibs serves as a warning against starting out in such a manner.

My disdain for a flat 4-4-2 derives from the fact it now borders on obsolete in modern football. Only a couple of elite level teams have successfully utilised such a formation in the last decade. These are Leicester City in 2015/16 - who had a cheat code in N'Golo Kante, plus a selfless striker in Shinji Okazaki - and Atletico Madrid. Their success is reliant on the phenomenal Diego Simeone, who has spent years constructing one of the most formidable defensive juggernauts of all time. Even then, it has still hinged upon two of the best goalkeepers of this era; Jan Oblak now, formerly Thibaut Courtois.

Ultimately, a two man central midfield is virtually always liable to fare worse in possession vis-a-vis a three man midfield. Of course, possession is only what you make of it, yet there is ample evidence to suggest that teams with higher ball possession tend to take more points. However, we can start with a partnership up top without needing to switch to 3-5-2 and ruin our defensive structure.

DIAMOND FORMATION

It is quite unbelievable, in 2020/21 especially, that I am seriously proposing looking to Neil Lennon's Celtic for tactical inspiration. Yet, the mini revival it brought the Parkhead side - up until Nir Bitton got himself sent off at Ibrox and their ill-fated Dubai jaunt - offers plenty of insight into how we could reshape our team and our season.

The signings of Eamonn Brophy and Colin Quaner and the decision to offload Junior Morias on loan has lead our squad to favour switching to the diamond (pictured above). This is because we have 5 recognised strikers - the new lads accompanying Obika, Erwin, and Dennis; meanwhile, just 3 proper wingers in Durmus, Connolly, and McAllister. Admittedly, we have versatile players who can cover on the flanks but this should be a last resort.

The above team outlined mostly explains itself. The defensive half stays as you would expect, although Erhahon has been demoted to the sub option behind MacPherson due to young Ethan having a notable dip in performances lately. Ryan Flynn is fit again and it would be fantastic to see him start, while the new strike pairing is almost certainly going to be Jim Goodwin's go-to when possible however Lee Erwin does improve when he has a foil. Meanwhile, Kristian Dennis has done nothing to suggest he would be more effective as a lone target, so such a switch would benefit him too.

As for the wingers, McAllister certainly possesses the craft and guile to be an option as the number 10 role. His lack of pace and athleticism means he isn't the most conventional winger, in either a defensive or attacking sense, and playing centrally will allow him more touches and this grants him the possibility to create a larger volume of chances. His defensive role could be minimised to sitting on one of the opposition's deeper-lying midfielders, and having watched this league for long enough it is safe to say he doesn't have to worry about tracking back too often.

Ilkay Durmus would definitely be the loser if the diamond became the new gameplan, as it is difficult to see inclusion in any role as viable for him. Dylan Connolly, meanwhile, would be a fascinating option as a partner to a larger traditional target man (Obika, Quaner, Erwin) with his pace in behind pinning the opposition, as their defensive line can't push too far forward. It isn't hard to envisage him as one of the outer points of the diamond either, as he could ensure an opposition fullback is allowed limited time in possession, which would be vital for this strategy to work.

What Celtic Do

Turnbull, playing at the top of the diamond midfield, effectively presses Glen Kamara, one of Rangers deeper midfielders. Credit: Kieran Devlin, The Athletic

As you would expect, the two Celtic strikers (Edouard and Griffiths) mark the two Rangers centre backs (Goldson and Balogun). The pass into Kamara springs Celtic's pressing trap and instantly Turnbull pressures. Notice how Christie, playing on the right of the diamond, is eagerly anticipating a pass over to left back Borna Barisic. This is how the system would need to work for us too, as disrupting opponents possession in these areas is an extremely effective strategy. 

This could force teams to play long, which means there is a high probability of a turnover when they do - allowing us to regain possession and start our own attack. Our defensive line is solid, filled with plenty of experience, and McCarthy and Tait in particular aren't slouches, so as long as we don't go kamikaze we shouldn't be at risk of conceding from a punt sent from the other 18-yard line. Let's look at what might happen if teams try and play through us.

Again, Kieran Devlin of The Athletic was focusing on Turnbull mainly but there are other lessons here. Callum McGregor, playing left of Celtic's diamond, is right up against full back Tavernier, with striker Edouard in close proximity. The Rangers captain panics and plays a poor pass in field (see next picture) which allows Turnbull to dispossess Kemar Roofe, one of Rangers forwards, who has dropped deep in an attempt to receive the ball and influence the game.

Going back to the middle picture which showed more of the play, albeit Frimpong is out of shot, Celtic are in quite a healthy position. Morelos has spun left back Laxalt but the two centre backs and Soro are adequately placed to deal with the threat. Although Bitton would go on to show the problems of leaving an uncertain centre half exposed, to my mind his was an individual error rather than a systemic failure, when considering position on the park, the 'game state' etc.

Celtic were much improved following on from the diamond being introduced, and for further reading on this I recommend Kieran Devlin, @jucojames @Alan_Morrison67 and @BhoysAnalytics. We may not have the Parkhead side's attacking synergy or talent but St Mirren do not lack players capable of causing damage to the opposition faced on a regular basis. This shift should create new passing lanes, shooting angles, and make us more unpredictable. There's no doubt it would require extensive work on the training pitch.

Evidence suggests we have the squad for this sort of pressing system, with young, vibrant, energetic players in the advanced areas of the park. We rank fourth lowest in the league for passes allowed per defensive action (PPDA), on 10.65 behind Celtic on 8.48, Livingston on 8.45, and Rangers on 8.14 - the lower the number, the more effective a team is at pressing the opposition. Furthermore, according to Wyscout we rank fifth highest in the league for challenge intensity, which is defined as 'Duels, tackles and interceptions per minute of opponent possession'. Would expect nothing less from a Jim Goodwin team...

Is this the magic solution to all our problems? Certainly not. Yet a place in the top six is still up for grabs. Livingston are charging towards the established top four but there remains a spot there for the taking, and we won't get it if we can't devise a strategy to yield more goals and more victories.

Thanks for reading. Paisley St Mirren!

Lewis.