The Rollercoaster

 The Rollercoaster

Despair and delight are familiar bedfellows when you're a St Mirren supporter. Not only will you experience both, they are frequently in close companionship, capable of arriving almost simultaneously. To go from being absolutely disconsolate on Sunday, following our defeat to Livingston in the League Cup, to complete jubilation by Wednesday evening, after going to Tannadice and winning 5-1, sums up what it means to be a football fan. It's a rollercoaster but in times like these, football provides the sustenance to keep many people, including myself, going. Ultimately, the emotional resonance the club and the sport hold is why we love the game.

It Was On The Cards...

I'm certainly not a talented gambler, far from it, but our defeat on Sunday really seemed inevitable. A palpable sense of foreboding engulfed me all weekend; I stuck a blasphemous tenner on Livingston to advance to the final against St Johnstone. Our prior defeat to the Perthshire side suggested our small downturn was becoming prolonged - the 0.49xG recorded in the 1-0 defeat to St Johnstone was our lowest since the 3-0 loss to Rangers at the beginning of the campaign. No promising attacking play, disjointed structure, and a lack of cohesion all foreshadowed what was to follow at Hampden Park, where we recorded 0.59xG and mustered a pitiful 2 shots on target.

But What Actually Went Wrong?

A pet hate of mine, which could drive one to the point of insanity were they to stop and ponder it, is the regularly perpetrated accusation that the players had "no fight, no desire, weren't working hard enough" so on and so forth. Nothing could be further from the truth. The desperation of the players was abundantly clear; they were panicked at exactly the time for cool heads. There was commendable effort in our hard running and some of the challenges - Conor McCarthy put in one of the most clean, robust tackles you will see midway through the second half. We actually won more duels in the semi final than in the league match - 48.41% against 47.57% - which does show we were "up for it". 

There's another type of bravery and that's bravery in possession. To ask for the ball in a tricky spot, to take risks when you have it at your feet. In defeat, however, the deficiencies were stark: no inventive passes; no threatening movement to create a new lane or angle for a teammate; no mazy dribbles or precise shots. It was with the best of intentions but too often players wanted the easy route. The hopeful long balls were easily repelled by Guthrie and Ambrose. The predictable, safe pass - which is fine most of the time, but not every time.

I'll leave the last word to Pep Guardiola, who said when discussing Manchester City this week: "When we have the ball we run less. When situations go bad the tendency. . . is to think we don't fight, we don't run or show spirit, and I've always believed completely the opposite. The reason why we didn't play good, we move too much, we run too much. In football when you have the ball always you have to walk, and run at the right moment."

Lies, Damned Lies, And Statistics 

We started our new signing Eamonn Brophy in both matches. My take on him is that it's a very encouraging capture, albeit our fanbase seem too optimistic with regards to how prolific he'll be. What Brophy needs to facilitate his talent is a strike partner and for the ball not to be launched in the air towards him. Against Livingston, we sadly left him up top himself and played a long ball game to which he is ill-suited.

Conceding an early goal is never opportune, although the nature of the opponent and the occasion meant that doing so at Hampden was especially disastrous. This drastically altered the gamestate and meant we resorted to trying to force the issue too much. By gamestate, I mean the factors that define the approach, actions, and intangibles of any football game. The score, the occasion, how long is left, the tactical approaches, and numerous other concepts which make every game different. 

This is evident in the contrast of the possession in both matches. Of our total passes pass, 23.6% went long versus Livingston compared to 19.34% against Dundee United. Every pass on average went 2 yards further in the semi final than the subsequent league game. Unsurprisingly, this meant our passing accuracy was worse by 2.56% (70.8% versus 73.36%).

We had similar numbers of positional attacks in both games - i.e. open play attacks built via our own possession, as opposed to set plays or counter attacks - at 35 for the Sunday defeat and 40 for the victorious Wednesday, yet they yielded a solitary shot against Livingston and 10 against Dundee United. Part of that disparity is because of how resolutely the West Lothian side defended but a lot of it was of our own making.

Against Dundee United, we were involved in a less high stakes environment and accordingly took greater risks. The Tangerines managed 19 shots against us compared to Livingston's 9.  The end-to-end nature of the tie meant there was a remarkably low number of passes allowed per defensive action (PPDA) by both sides (Saints 6.64 and United 6.29). This compares to a season long average PPDA of 10.18 by us and 10.16 by our opponents. Hardly surprising, therefore, that Wednesday was one of the most exhilarating and frenetic performances of the campaign.

PPDA is a very insightful metric with regards to how a team presses the opposition - how many passes they can make before you foul, intercept, or tackle. It's also insightful, as it shows us how playing two strikers can actually work. Admittedly, I do still have reservations about playing a flat 4-4-2 all the time, but it worked well on Wednesday. This is because we were able to recover possession frequently - 77 times in total. Importantly, 55 of these were not in our defensive third of the park, meaning we could repel Dundee United higher up the pitch - 17 turnovers in the attacking third and 38 in the midfield.

In Praise Of A Forgotten Face And A Neglected One

Ryan Flynn had managed just 8 minutes so far this season; it wasn't evident. An immense performance all round, with the club tweeting afterwards 84% passing accuracy, 2 chances created, and the magnificent assist. This was the result of his solitary dribble all game but it was an incredible show of composure, energy, and skill. With 6 interceptions, a couple of probing crosses, and the shot which resulted in the second penalty (a very kind award from the referee) this was a reminder of just how talented the 32-year-old is.

Considering Jake Doyle-Hayes injury and Cammy MacPherson's suspension, the return of Flynn is a blessing for Saints right now. An experienced player like Ryan helping the younger lads, including teenager Ethan Erhahon who was brilliant on Wednesday, will be invaluable. The games are going to arrive thick and fast, with 8 league matches in February and having as many players available as possible is critical if we are to challenge for the top half.

I mentioned Flynn's superlative assist and the man he set up was Kristian Dennis. Both he and Dylan Connolly had superb cameos from the bench, combining on the 80th minute for the fourth goal to secure the victory. The hooked ball by Dennis at first glance could be written off as a 'hit-and-hope' over the top punt but there's no doubt under scrutiny that he knows exactly where and how to play the ball for the Irishman to chase. This blog has repeatedly stated that Connolly's pace has yet to be fully utilised and Wednesday was a glimpse into what a potent weapon it can be.

Previous comments have also alluded to Dennis needing a strike partner to make him as effective but his display in Dundee would suggest not. We switched to a 4-2-3-1 for the final 20 minutes and all credit to the manager, as this tactical tweak worked a treat. Dennis completed 7 of 9 passes and managed to get in another shot in addition to his tap-in. Calling it a tap-in does a disservice to the clever movement which helps engineer the goal and surely elevates him ahead of Erwin in the pecking order. The only notable negative metric from Wednesday's encounter was Dennis winning just 1 of 5 aerial duels, which is perfectly understandable considering his height and physique. That just means Sunday's tactics wouldn't have worked with him starting either.

With 9 matches in less than a month, today against Celtic followed by 8 crammed into February, the rollercoaster is going to be at full throttle. Enjoy the ride.

Thanks for reading.

Lewis.