Possible New St Mirren Signing: Erion Hoxhallari

Possible New St Mirren Signing: Erion Hoxhallari 

St Mirren have been no strangers to venturing into the European transfer market in recent years, experiencing successes (Hladky, Durmus, Popescu, Muzek), failures (Djorkaeff, Chabbi, Corbu), unknown quantities (will Peter Urminsky ever play a game for us?) and really unknown quantities (Duckens Nazon - a delightfully peculiar and enigmatic international footballer who was, rather endearingly, a bit crap).

However, with the pandemic, Brexit, and Jim Goodwin's fondness for signing players from the League of Ireland, it looked unlikely St Mirren would be dipping their toes into continental Europe for new recruits anytime soon. That was until Richard Wilson posted this tweet suggesting Albanian international defender Erion Hoxhallari would be joining the club:

Like the rest of you, I had never heard of Erion Hoxhallari before this weekend; unlike the rest of you, I am sad enough to devote hours of time researching him and pondering what this transfer would do for the player, the team, and say about the club overall.

Background Information

Erion Hoxhallari is a 25 year old Albanian defender who plays for KF Tirana. They overcame two managerial changes while languishing in midtable during their 2019-20 league campaign to eventually triumph and become Albanian champions for the 25th time. This isn't an especially impressive feat, with Albania 41st out of 55 in the current UEFA coefficients for domestic leagues - just above Northern Ireland, for context. The top scorer for KF Tirana was Michael Ngoo, who you may remember as the gangly targetman striker that played for Hearts during the 2013 League Cup final, which they lost and we famously won.

Perhaps missing the firepower of Ngoo now - any Albanian football experts out there, please get in touch - KF Tirana are down in 5th place currently, albeit only 5 points off top spot with 10 games remaining. Their European campaign consisted of a solitary Champions League tie against Red Star Belgrade (everyone at UEFA HQ must have celebrated that match being behind closed doors; Albania and Serbia don't play nice) and they narrowly lost 1-0. Hoxhallari played 78 minutes of the game at left back, before following that up with a measly 9 minutes of their 3-0 Europa League defeat to Young Boys.

Wyscout have listed Hoxhallari as a 6ft 0, left footed defender, who as Richard Wilson says can play either as a central defender or left back. He made his full international debut for Albania in November 2020, when they defeated Kosovo 2-1 in a friendly, and had worked his way up through their youth setup in previous years. 

Hoxhallari has also gained some international experience from featuring in several other Europa League qualifiers for both KF Tirana and KF Laci. These typically did not go well: a 5-0 aggregate defeat to Maccabi Tel Aviv back in 2017; a 2-0 defeat at home to Molde in 2018; although he scored the ultimately crucial away goal as Laci advanced against Cypriot side Anorthorsis Famagusta in the previous round, which you can see in the clip below.

Report

Going to start by talking about the positives before the negatives but, before that, a series of small caveats:

• Albanian football is comparatively weaker than Scottish football.
• KF Tirana and St Mirren will have some stylistic and circumstantial differences worth bearing in mind.
• Certain statistics may be slightly misleading due to switching between CB & LB throughout the season.
• Any comparisons made between Hoxhallari and, say, Joe Shaughnessy or Richard Tait, are more for illustrative purposes than me definitively saying one is a better player than the other.
• Lastly, central defence is a notoriously hard position to scout and look behind the numbers - even people who are actually talented at this and get paid for a living to analyse footballers say as much.

An interesting aspect to begin with is that he's been accustomed, in the course of this season alone, playing as a centre back in both a back 3 and a back 4. He plays as the LCB in both, which is unsurprising since he is left footed. Jim Goodwin has shown a fondness for playing the 3 at the back system, which features Shaughnessy, McCarthy, and Fraser as his centre halves, before adjusting the rest of the team depending on the opposition and how our attacking players are faring. This tactical flexibility Hoxhallari possesses is something that you'd expect our staff to be examining and liking the look of.

Something else we'll be appreciating, if the surprising journey of Tirana to Paisley is made, is his dead ball prowess. Check out both his free kicks scored in March below - question the goalkeeping if you want, he's struck those impeccably. His other goal this season is a shot inside the box, a corner ricochets and the ball ends up with him; not advocating signing him based on his shooting but when Hoxhallari's left foot catches hold of one, it stays hit.

When looking at Hoxhallari's radar and comparing him to his peers in the Albanian top flight, he stands out in several metrics. He will frequently dribble out with the ball - 7th highest in the league amongst CBs - coupled with being 6th highest for offensive duels (i.e. he's the attacking player trying to header, dribble, progress the ball beyond an opponent) show a player unafraid to take risks and that is technically very capable. The clips below show the risks and rewards this can yield:

As you'll notice after watching the above links, Hoxhallari is a combative player who is capable of using his body to draw fouls, get in front of opponents, and impose himself on the match. This is something which would stand him in good stead if he were to join Saints in the SPFL Premiership. He'll get on the ball and look to make things happens; he's 3rd in passes per 90 for Albanian league central defenders and he's also 3rd in average pass length, meaning he isn't shy in mixing it up and going long. Would expect this to be another trait which has caught the eye of our staff.

However, his aerial duel win % is low for a central defender and that is a far from ideal weakness in Scotland. Admittedly, Albania does seem different culturally from Scotland in this regard, based on the stats and what I've been available to watch so far. Here he is compared to McCarthy and Shaughnessy this season: 

Aerial duels per 90 (win %)                              

• McCarthy         8.91 (61.3%)                   
• Shaughnessy  8.84 (65.4%)                    
• Hoxhallari         4.54 (47.7%)             

Loose ball duels per 90 (win %)

• McCarthy        4.28 (61.8%)
• Shaughnessy  4.03 (53.2%)
• Hoxhallari        4.17 (64%)

Defensive duels per 90 (win%)

• McCarthy        5.82 (74.5%)
• Shaughnessy  5.36 (75.2%)
• Hoxhallari        8.21 (67.5%)

McCarthy and Shaughnessy also have higher numbers in terms of the amounts of interceptions and ball recoveries they have made. However, this is certainly influenced by the fact Hoxhallari plays in a team accustomed to having more possession: KF Tirana average 51.8% possession domestically; St Mirren are 4.3% lower.

Away from the numbers and making judgement based on the eye test, Hoxhallari would probably prove to be a popular player, in much the manner of Mihai Popescu. It seems lazy to draw the comparison but both are technically adept, not aerial powerhouses but are tall, athletic, and will look to break the lines where possible. The Albanian shares the trait his Romanian predecessor had of being a touch erratic, but committed to the causes and loves an old school challenge - I present this lunging, last ditch interception as exhibit A.

The slight down side here, to me anyway, is Hoxhallari's fairly poor disciplinary record. His tendency to foul might irritate and, in his last 53 domestic games going back to the start of the 19/20 season, he has 12 yellow cards and 3 red cards. None of these were for straight red horror tackles admittedly - there was a second caution for diving in an attempt to win a penalty, after a very harsh first booking for a high foot despite winning the ball cleanly. The other indiscretions were second yellows are being left exposed one-on-one against an attacker bearing down on goal. Partly his fault to end up in that situation, of course, but his teammates and management at KF Tirana were culpable too.

The idea of tactical flexibility and playing numerous roles was alluded to earlier. Erion Hoxhallari, when examining his performances at left back from the 19/20 season, compares favourably to Richard Tait this campaign. With the exception of crossing accuracy, expected assists, and a few defensive metrics, there isn't much Tait trumps Hoxhallari in (reminder again of the lower standard of Albanian football). Passing accuracy, dribbling, progressive runs, and even aerial duel success, are some of the areas Hoxhallari may offer an upgrade if he was to play there.

What This Means For The Club + Final Thoughts

As a 25 year old (he turns 26 in October) he's very similar to Marcus Fraser, in the sense that he's at the right sort of age for recruiting a new defender - young enough to have ironed out some deficiencies from his game; not too old that he's at risk of losing any athleticism or resale value in the future. From this perspective the signing makes sense, as Jim Goodwin has spoken about how he wants young players to use St Mirren as a launch pad to better things in their career. Furthermore, the age and status of Hoxhallari as an international footballer means a successful spell with us could result in a lucrative offer from elsewhere. 

This is the model the club need to follow. Ideally, we would then receive a transfer fee selling the player but this isn't always possible eg Vaclav Hladky joining Salford on a Bosman last summer. Furthermore, with Brexit rules potentially affecting English clubs signing EU players but not Scottish clubs (due to permit changes, worthy of its own post), we could and should exploit this to our advantage. I asked Tony Fitzpatrick about this at a SMiSA 'meet the manager' event, in amongst a more general recruitment/transfer policy question but, unfortunately, he didn't touch on this specifically.

Another eye catching aspect here, if Richard Wilson is correct, is not only the 40% sell-on fee we've agreed but also the fact we're paying a fee to sign him. Obviously we aren't privy to this amount, and I'm not one of the auditors looking at our books, but this seems a surprising and slightly unnecessary risk.

In summation, Erion Hoxhallari is someone who certainly would be capable of making the step and being a decent SPFL Premiership player. Versatile, athletic, combative, technically fine, would progress from the defensive line and make things happen from open play or a dead ball - there's enough there for me to ignore any misgivings (poor disciplinary record, a touch erratic, not the best in the air, risk of him not settling here, the jump in quality being too great). Ultimately, the added risk of the transfer fee and limitations on the profit we could ultimately get, in the current financial climate, mean I would be tempted to look elsewhere.

Verdict - Would ideally sign but financial concerns mean this is a tentative 'no' from me.

Thanks for reading,

Lewis.