What to look out for from St Mirren in 2021

 What to look out for from St Mirren in 2021

St Mirren have ended 2020 in 7th place in the Scottish Premiership, with 21 points from 18 games played. The threat of having matches against Hamilton and Motherwell forfeited as 3-0 defeats still looms large, however the optimism that the arrival of a new year naturally brings is justified from a Saints perspective, even if these potential losses threaten to besmirch our record and make the standings look less rosy for us.

Jim Goodwin has had time to rectify what was going wrong during a garish run of six consecutive league defeats, starting with the 1-0 loss away to St Johnstone in August and stretching through to November, when a 0-0 home draw with Dundee United stopped the rot. There were several mitigating circumstances during this time - Covid cancellations meaning we played just one league game in October, Jak Alnwick's absence for three matches, a relatively unkind fixture list - but ultimately the situation on the pitch was unhealthy. The absence of crowds in the stadium might actually have helped Jim, if the vociferous comments of social media were to have been replicated in person, as the cries of "Goodwin out" were becoming a deafening chorus around the autumn months.

It is the League Cup, a competition Jim Goodwin captained the Buddies to victory in during the 12/13 season, which has helped remedy the situation and given this campaign a renewed vigour and excitement. After a group stage which, while ultimately successful, was arduous viewing mostly, a 2-1 home win over Aberdeen fully displayed the beginning of a talented, confident Saints team assembling for the first time at top flight level for numerous years. Fantastic victories in the league followed, but the crown jewel of the season so far has been our 3-2 home victory over Rangers in the quarter finals. The sole defeat the resurgent Ibrox side have suffered in 20/21, inflicted in remarkably dramatic circumstances via a brave, dogged, and skilled Saints squad, was certainly not undeserved. 

The culmination of the League Cup campaign

The semi final against Livingston promises to be a scintillating watch as the Almondvale side, whom St Mirren have defeated twice already in the SPFL Premiership, have had a remarkable upturn in fortunes since David Martindale took the reins following Gary Holt's resignation. The big day at Hampden sadly looks destined to be without fans in attendance, but St Mirren supporters around the world will be eagerly watching and anticipating a third League Cup final in little over a decade (following the 2013 triumph over Hearts, which we remember fondly, and the 2010 loss to Rangers, which inspires a collective amnesia amongst our support, with the exception of a few masochists).

The final, should we make it, would be against Hibs *insert narrative klaxon here* or St Johnstone. Considering the displays already put in, there is no reason we can't win our fifth major Scottish trophy. So what's responsible for our reasons for optimism? What else should we be watching this year?

Can Jak Alnwick keep up his SPFL Team of the Year form?

This may seem like an outlandish shout considering Rangers have an absurd, phenomenal defensive record domestically, and I don't actually expect Jak Alnwick to get the nod over Allan McGregor, but hear me out.

Firstly, Jon McLaughlin has played 9 league games for Rangers, keeping 8 clean sheets. It's debatable who has even been the best Rangers goalie, and the fact they've taken games off each other opens the field to a variety of candidates from different clubs. Benjamin Siegrist of Dundee United and Ofir Marciano at Hibs, in particular, have had strong displays and several outstanding saves, however there's a convincing argument Jak Alnwick is most worthy of getting a Team of the Year shout.

According to Wyscout, he has the best prevented goals per 90 minutes record in the top flight at 0.30. Essentially, a better goalkeeper makes a positive difference (Alnwick at 0.30, Stryjek at 0.28, McLaughlin and McGregor at 0.25 and 0.19 respectively, Siegrist at 0.23) while a poor goalkeeper will cost you goals (St Johnstone keepers Clark and Parish at -0.38 and -0.25, for instance). Alnwick is a close second to Siegrist in terms of the overall numbers (4.71 to 4.85) and hopefully will overtake as the year continues.

So the novel, underlying metrics add weight to my argument, but the rudimental statistics are impressive too. Alnwick is 3rd in the league in terms of total saves, with 54 from just 15 games played. As far as clean sheets go, 6 from 15 is very impressive considering Alnwick faces the 4th most shots per 90 minutes, and plays for a bottom half team that obviously defend more often than the Old Firm, Hibs, or Aberdeen. 

Vaclav Hladky reached instant hero status after his arrival in January 2019, and while Alnwick has yet to have his crowning moment a la Hladky's penalty shootout heroics against Dundee United in the playoffs, he has been wildly more successful than anybody could have expected as a replacement. The Czech has not been missed. 

Will the exciting progress of Saints young central midfield continue?

Selling Kyle Magennis to Hibernian, losing Ryan Flynn to a long-term injury, Sam Foley advancing in age and being preferred at centre half - a St Mirren fan could have been forgiven for having serious anxiety about the engine room of the side. 

This would have been exacerbated by some dreadful performances by new recruit Nathan Sheron early on, who has since been jettisoned from the team. Now, the magic formula of Jake Doyle-Hayes, Ethan Erhahon, and Jamie McGrath as the starting lineup, with Cammy MacPherson able to deputise too, has given the Buddies a real platform to be a success and climb the league table.

Before looking at the numbers, there's a real joy and delight at seeing progressive, young players plying their trade, all permanently signed - in the case of Erhahon and MacPherson, academy graduates - and improving continually. It's incredibly satisfying to see, especially for a club like St Mirren who won't always have technically gifted, creative midfielders in their lineup. The youthfulness of this composition in the middle gives us a real zip, character, and verve, making the team more exciting to watch and threatening to the opposition.

The impact of Jake Doyle-Hayes has been the least subtle - this guy has transformed our team. To go his first 10 games undefeated, finally tasting defeat in number 11 against Rangers last week, is frankly outrageous when playing for a club of our stature at this level. In terms of passes per 90 minutes in the league, the only non-Old Firm player ahead of him is Vigurs at Ross County. He's been nicknamed the Irish Xavi, and while he isn't quite at that metronomic level for passing (although 86% passing accuracy is still great, the actual Xavi was touching the mid 90s) he has so many other brilliant qualities.

If you think back to our second goal against Rangers in the quarter final, it all starts from JDH intercepting a pass from Balogun right in the heart of the pitch. The third goal stems from JDH picking up a loose ball in the box and passing back out to Jamie McGrath, who then returns it with interest and it culminates in Conor McCarthy netting a heroic last minute winner. Here are some of the stats where the Irishman is at the elite level (top decile, if not top 5%) in this league:

• Recoveries per 90: 15.2
• Opponent half recoveries per 90: 5.7
• Loose ball duels per 90: 5.02
• Defensive duels won: 70.45%
• Interceptions possession adjusted per 30 minutes of opponent possession: 8.77

Although a smaller sample size, there's no reason to believe Doyle-Hayes isn't one of the very best young central midfielders in the SPFL Premiership. 

Jamie McGrath has improved to a remarkable extent since being placed as the most advanced of a central midfield trio. He's certainly not best utilised out wide, as we've gone on to learn, and his reliability so far from the penalty spot is obviously an attribute we all hope will continue. With 6 goals in all competitions, joint top with Jon Obika, he'll be in with a chance of ending the season as our Golden Boot winner.

Ethan Erhahon, playing on the left beside Jake Doyle-Hayes, is similarly performing to a very high standard. His defensive stats, in terms of things such as interceptions and defensive duels, are almost as excellent as the aforementioned Irishman, and his growing composure on the ball as he gains experience is a delight to watch. Personally, I would like to see Ethan dribble with the ball, as his great feet and nimble style mean he can drift past players, plus he's no slouch either. He doesn't tend to take players on often, slightly over once a match, but a near 70% success rate means he does stand out as one of the better midfielders in the league. Admittedly, there are perfectly valid tactical reasons as to why deeper lying centre mids shouldn't be taking too many chances with the ball, so it's understandable this is a less common aspect to his game.

Will Junior Morias score a goal?

Speaking personally, I don't rate 4-4-2 as an optimal formation for this era of football anyway, and I certainly don't want to see St Mirren starting with it. A lot of poor performances early in the season came using this formation, so unless there are exceptional circumstances - see the 3-2 win over St Johnstone in December where our man advantage after the Kerr red card meant this system actually did benefit us, both Erwin and Obika scored - we should continue to persist with our 4-2-3-1 shape.

This presents a problem for Junior Morias, as he isn't a lone striker (he lacks the height for the out ball option, he isn't quick enough to threaten in behind etc and so on) but he isn't exactly at the front of the queue for us as a winger either. Dylan Connolly, Kyle McAllister, Ilkay Durmus are all superior players, and Junior has dreadful crossing and passing statistics (21% accuracy and 64% accuracy respectively). His dribbling numbers are better, he attempts a lot at almost 6 per 90 minutes and has 61% success with them, which is impressive. His low centre of gravity and incredible strength certainly help him here.

But these assets can't help him put the ball in the net. What is troubling is how his xG (the expected number of goals he would score, based on an average of thousands of historical data points) per game has dropped off. After frustrating fans by missing several opportunities against Hamilton and Ross County - in matches where his xG was 0.53 and 0.55 respectively - he hasn't had too many other 'big' chances to break his duck for the season. 

This is definitely weighing on the mind of the Jamaican. In the Ross County clash on Boxing Day, where he played the full game as a winger, he had 5 shots that mustered a total of 0.08xG. To put it in the simplest terms possible, he's taking shots that have no right to go in based on the distance and situation from which he is shooting. This is a facet of his game he should eradicate. Instead, he needs to continue to have a large number of touches in the opposition box, pick up his early season linkup play with Jon Obika, and hope the Englishman's excellent hold up play and physicality can fashion a big moment for him. Perhaps the first goal going in will act as a catalyst for him to have a successful 2021 in the black and white jersey.

Happy New Year Everyone! St Mirren Till I Die.

Lewis.